January 2021 Economic Forecast

The state of the economy is positive. The leading indicators are signaling additional rise is ahead. There are naturally concerns regarding COVID-19 and the political changes ahead. Regarding the former, we are encouraged by the distribution of the vaccines thus far and by what we are reading about the effectiveness of at least two of them with regard to variant strains. In terms of the body politic, it is evident that the control of the Senate is not going to result in an unaligned government but rather an alignment of government in terms of one political party.

We discussed this alternative during our webinar in December and stand by that earlier analysis. Business leaders will find a way to overcome regulations and increased taxes. We will closely monitor the tax situation and programs with an eye toward determining probable or possible economic impact. As yet, there is no evidence that we need to change our macroeconomic outlook. It is wise to keep in mind that any and all change in this realm will take time and we will all have time to analyze and best position ourselves. There was strife in our nation’s capital on January 6, 2021, as rioters stormed the Capitol.

We are putting our thoughts together on this, but initially it seems to us that the ramifications are much more political than they are economic. We will advise if our thinking changes.