February 2021 Economic Forecast

The economy is progressing in its recovery. The data reported out over the last month did not hold any negative surprises. The trends are moving as anticipated, which in many cases means ongoing rise. The ascent in Capital Goods New Orders turned significantly higher in the rates-of-change. The New Orders tally for the last three months is 13.6% above the same three months in 2019. The New Orders 3MMT is at record levels and, by this tally, recovery from COVID is complete. Consumers are happy, and businesses are buying capital equipment.

Signals from the leading indicators and other variables affirm that additional rise awaits in 2021. You don’t want to be on the lagging edge of this trend if your markets are tied to these trends. It could cost you in terms of price, availability, and opportunity. Of course, there are sectors of the economy that are lagging the recovery in GDP, retail sales, single-unit housing, etc. Sectors within nonresidential construction, travel, lodging, and entertainment will likely not catch on to the rising trend until late 2021 or during 2022.